Summer and winter cropping forecasts for Queensland’s wheat and sorghum cropping industries are produced by QAAFI’s experts in the complex integration of spatial production modelling and climate forecasting. These crop outlooks are available for free to view and download by growers.
Wheat outlook (winter)
The current winter crop outlook for Queensland indicates a predicted crop yield of 1.76 t/ha, which is 12% below the long-term median yield expectation and equal to the worst 30% of yield outcomes relative to all years. Although, some variation in predicted yield outcomes exists within the state’s cropping regions, SWQ (33%), SEQ (38%) and CQ (26%) have median yield outcomes ranked close to the worst 30% of all years. Concurrently, these regions have predicted median yield departures of 13%, 7% and 14% below the long-term median, respectively. Traditional sowing opportunities in most of the southern parts of QLD were limited due to the lack of sowing rains. This resulted in total likely area sown to winter crops of around 1.1 M ha, which is 32% below the long-term median area sown over the last seven years (2016-2022) at a state level (QLD). Note that all climate indicators for ENSO remain in an EL Niño ALERT mode.
Sorghum outlook (summer)
The sorghum crop prospect for 2023/24 across the entire Australian summer grain region is predicted to be above long-term median. At this stage, the forecast yield distribution has converged to around 3.34 t/ha, which is above the 80th percentile compared to all years. However, there remains large variation in the outlook among local regions. Specifically, most areas of SWQ and parts of SEQ have predicted yields above the long-term median expectation, while most areas in NNSW and CQ have sorghum yield expectations close to or slightly above the long-term median for that region. This crop outlook is based on a crop-free (fallow) period through the winter season and areas with such longer fallow practices are likely to have better yield prospects for the coming season.
Contact the researcher
UQ's Dr Andries Potgieter produces regular seasonal outlooks for sorghum and wheat producers in Australia.
T: +61 7 535 15085
E: a.potgieter@uq.edu.au
